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Page Title: Recommended Erosion Frequency Procedure
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To perform the EST, historical storms impacting a site are broken down into
the parameters that impact the engineering aspect of interest: storm track, maxi-
mum winds, radius to maximum, pressure deficit, etc. These variables are
termed input vectors. The storm response of interest, in this case vertical erosion
of the capped mound, is also calculated for each historical storm using an
appropriate model (in this case LTFATE is used). The response of interest is
referred to as response vector. During EST simulations, N-repetitions (say 100
or more) of T-year responses (say 100 to 200 years) of the response vector of
interest (vertical erosion for capping projects) are produced providing mean
value frequency relationships with accompanying confidence limits such that
probability of occurrence can be defined with error band estimates. In other
words, the mean vertical erosion for a range of return intervals with confidence
limits (based on the number of standard deviations) are produced by the EST
procedure.
There have been a number of applications of the bootstrap method and EST
to coastal problems. Prater et al. (1985) described error estimation in coastal
stage frequency curves for Long Island. Mark and Scheffner (1993) discuss use
of the EST to compute frequency of occurrence of storm surge elevations in
Delaware Bay. Farrar et al. (1994) describe the use of EST to estimate the fre-
quency of horizontal beach erosion as part of an economic analysis for design of
beach fills at Panama City, FL. Most recently, the EST technique was used to
predict frequency of vertical erosion estimates for capped mounds at a range of
depths at the Mud Dump disposal site located east of Sandy Hook, NJ (Clausner
et al. 1996). The work was part of a larger effort for the New York District to
determine remaining capacity of the Mud Dump site for both suitable sediments
and those requiring capping.
Application of the EST to a capping project involves a series of sequential
steps to calculate the cap erosion thickness, which are described in the remainder
of this appendix.
Recommended Erosion Frequency Procedure
To define the required cap erosion layer thickness as a function of depth at a
specific site, first the erosion frequency must be determined. It consists of a site-
specific quantitative analysis approach that requires the completion of several
sequential tasks. These tasks are (a) selection of appropriate storm events,
(b) development of storm surge elevation and current hydrographs for each
event, (c) development of four tidal phase elevation and current hydrographs,
(d) development of a wave height and period time series corresponding to each
storm event, (e) generation of input files representing the combination of tasks
2-4 to the Long-Term Fate of Dredged Material (LTFATE) model used to pre-
dict erosion, (f) execution of the LTFATE model to determine maximum vertical
erosion at the site as a result of each of the storm events, (g) development of
input files for the Empirical Simulation Technique (EST) program to generate
multiple repetitions of storm-event activity and the corresponding vertical
erosion, and finally, (h) using the EST program to generate vertical erosion
G5
Appendix G Procedures for Conducting Frequency-of-Erosion Studies

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