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 Uncertainty Analysis
What is Uncertainty Analysis?
Uncertainty analysis is an explicit acknowledgment and analysis of our lack of knowledge of the
assumptions and parameters used to assess risk.
How Should the Risk Assessment Address Uncertainty?
The uncertainty analysis should:
a.
Identify likely sources of uncertainty in the risk assessment.
b.
Identify clearly all significant assumptions at each stage of the assessment.
c.
Identify the range and, where possible, the distribution of values which a parameter may
take.
d.
Test the sensitivity of the risk assessment by using the bounding values for these
assumptions (for the most uncertain assumptions).
e.
Consider using parameter distributions with a probabilistic technique in the case of large,
multipathway risk assessments.
Why pursue an Uncertainty Analysis?
There are three reasons to address uncertainty:
It is a general requirement of most Federal and state risk assessment guidance.
It allows the risk assessor and risk manager to decide whether they have sufficient confidence in the
assessment to make a particular management decision.
It allows the risk assessor and risk manager to decide what type of further information they may need to
increase the confidence in the assessment.
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Chapter 5 Uncertainty Analysis
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