General Findings

g. It may be difficult to avoid making the mistakes that occurred using risk

assessment under the Comprehensive Environmental Response,

Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA).

h. It is difficult to communicate results of risk analyses to the public,

particularly in the case of politically volatile projects.

All of these discussions revealed skepticism among some workgroup members

about how risk assessment can be used to better inform permitting officials and

improve dredged material management decisions. Nevertheless, many of the

concerns voiced by group members (e.g., substantial data requirements, difficulty

in deciding on acceptable risk levels) exist whether or not risk assessment tools are

used. The group's primary concern with using these tools seems to be the possible

negative consequences of addressing uncertainty explicitly, especially for

controversial projects with sparse data supporting permit decisions.

General Findings

The group agreed that risk assessment could be useful in dredged material

management. One regulatory participant indicated that he is now making

"pass/fail" decisions and would like to perform assessments that are more

thorough. Another regulatory participant cautioned that he is "swimming in

guidance documents" and that any new risk assessment guidance should be

concise and general enough to allow for modification by local officials. Many

recognized that risk assessment is already an integral part of the USACE four-

tiered technical framework and that most projects do not require extensive risk

analysis. Rather, such analysis would be needed only for complicated projects

that comprise a small percentage of proposed projects. In light of these findings,

the group sought to develop a defensible and efficient decision-making framework

that would be compatible with the existing framework.

The group acknowledged that uncertainty is a critical element of risk

assessment, but that Federal and state regulators do not generally understand how

uncertainty analysis can be used in dredged material management. For example, it

can help regulators characterize spatial and temporal variability of dredged

material management impacts. Identification of such variability can be a key to

comparing potential impacts of different dredged material management

alternatives. Ideally, uncertainty analysis could illuminate the continuum between

possible decisions and the consequences of those decisions. USACE and USEPA

personnel must be trained in how to use these tools within the existing regulatory

structure and budgetary constraints.

Many expressed concern with how risk can be communicated effectively to the

public and identified the need for case studies where such communication has

occurred successfully. Some pointed out the importance of including members of

the public in the risk assessment process rather than simply reporting the

conclusions of such an assessment to them.

Chapter 4 Risk Characterization Workgroup Summary