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d. Elutriate and suspended-solids tests may artificially alter the availability
of contaminants. For example, clumps of sediment might break apart
during the test that would have remained intact in the field, resulting in
an overestimate of the potential for effects.
Precision of water column bioassay. Because it is easy to quantify
uncertainty due to precision error (Ingersoll et al. 1997) and the utility and
accuracy of the standard elutriate test have been extensively field verified
(USEPA 1996a), the magnitude of uncertainty is likely to be low.
ranked "moderate" with at least a factor of 10 due to the extrapolation from acute
to chronic effects (Kenaga 1982). Further uncertainty is introduced due to
possible aeration and disaggregation of dredged material during the test
procedure. Given the way the assay is performed and interpreted, these sources of
uncertainty are more likely to overestimate the potential for effects than
underestimate them.
Extrapolation of bioassay results to species in the field and from acute to
chronic exposures represents the primary quantifiable sources of uncertainty.
Two kinds of models are typically used for effects extrapolation (Suter 1993):
(a) additive and multiplicative factor models (i.e., applying uncertainty factors to
test results), and (b) statistical models (typically linear regression). As in the case
of the factor of 0.01 applied to the water column toxicity test results, the use of
these factors implies a linear relationship between the independent and dependent
variables. Consequently, statistical extrapolation models can also be used in
place of uncertainty factors. These models typically assume that the
toxicological parameter of interest is characterized by a probability density
function, and that all future observations are drawn from this distribution. For
example, this approach has been used to determine USEPA Water Quality
Criteria. The approach assumes that interspecies sensitivity follows a log-
triangular distribution and the lower 5 percent concentration is used as the
concentration affecting the most "sensitive" species (i.e., protection of 95 percent
of the species).
In order to assess causality, toxicity testing must be linked to other models or
toxicity tests specifically designed to identify contaminants or classes of
compounds responsible for observed toxicity (Ingersoll et al. 1997). The water
column toxicity bioassay can be performed and interpreted without knowing
which contaminants are causing the toxic effect. However, it is not possible to
predict in advance of the test which sediments might fail.
Sediment bioassays
Whole-sediment bioassays are designed to determine whether the dredged
material is likely to cause unacceptable adverse effects on benthic organisms.
The limiting permissible concentration (LPC) is defined as "that concentration
which will not cause unreasonable acute or chronic toxicity or sub-lethal adverse
effects based on bioassay results" (40 CFR 227.27). Dredged material does not
meet this condition in the commonly used acute toxicity test if bioassay mortality
(a) is statistically greater than in the reference sediment and (b) exceeds mortality
23
Chapter 4 Uncertainty in Tiered Evaluation of Dredged Material
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