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Other empirical approaches predict the probability that mixtures of sediment-
associated contaminants will result in toxicity to benthic invertebrates. For
example, the Sum-PAH model (Swartz et al. 1995) established a regression
relationship between the Kow of individual PAHs and the concentration in
sediment that results in acute toxicity to benthic invertebrates in spiked sediment
bioassays (10-day LC50 = 1 toxic unit). The regression relationship is used to
predict the LC50 of PAHs that have not been tested in bioassays. In this approach,
the concentration of each PAH in a field-collected sediment is expressed as a
fraction of its LC50. A large data set that contains matched information on
concentration of PAHs in field-collected sediment and results of toxicity tests
was used to develop a predictive relationship. The Sum-PAH approach estimates
the probability that a sediment will be acutely toxic on the basis of the sum of the
PAH toxic units of individual compounds. Results of the model are more
uncertain for sediments with low levels of PAHs (sum of toxic units < 0.25),
where 79 percent (n = 379) of the samples in the data set were predicted to be
nontoxic, but only 35 percent (n = 292) were observed to be nontoxic.
Other empirical approaches that predict the probability of toxicity to benthic
invertebrates from the concentration of chemicals in field-collected sediment
show promise in their ability to screen sediments for potential toxicity of
mixtures of contaminants (e.g., Long, Field, and McDonald 1998), but
uncertainties remain.
Physiology and biology of receptors
The exposure of an organism to a persistent environmental contaminant, such
as PCBs, can be assessed directly by measurement of body burdens of these
chemicals. However, the exposure to some chemicals, such as PAHs, cannot
always be assessed directly by measuring their concentration in tissue because
some organisms can rapidly convert PAHs to a variety of metabolites (Melancon
et al. 1992). The metabolites, which are usually more water soluble than the
parent compound, are not typically detected in environmental samples by
standard analytical techniques. Exposure of organisms to chemicals that are
rapidly metabolized may be underestimated if only the concentration of the
parent compound is examined.
The metabolites may be either more or less toxic than the parent compound.
For example, some PAHs undergo biotransformation into metabolites that are
mutagenic and carcinogenic (Thakker et al. 1976). The metabolites of these
chemicals can accumulate to high levels, especially in some aquatic organisms
(James 1989). If the metabolites are more toxic than the parent compound,
inability to detect the presence of metabolites in exposed organisms may result in
an underestimate of risk.
Risk Characterization
The goal of the risk characterization is to provide a quantitative estimate of
potential risk. For an ecological risk assessment, risk estimates for each chemical
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Chapter 5 Uncertainty in Tier IV Risk Assessments
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